Cirie's Reality (TV) Distortion Fields

This Week in Bold Strategy #13

Welcome back to This Week in BS. Light live feed spoilers for BB25 ahead, although there is so much going on in them that everything is a spoiler.

Big Brother 25

 🔮 Cirie’s Reality TV Distortion Field(s)

Bud Tribble, a member of the original Apple Macintosh design team, came up with a term called the Reality Distortion Field (RDF). It described Steve Jobs’ ability to convince himself and everyone around him that anything was possible. Through charm, hyperbole, bravado, and sheer will, Steve could actually change what was possible and distort reality within his orbit. It’s one of the ways Apple was able to accomplish so much under his leadership.

And seeing the discourse last week about keeping Hisam, or earlier, Reilly, and whether it was good for Cirie, it made me think that she has her own RDF. We often analyze these shows as if there is a right move and a wrong move. While I do generally think there is an optimal choice to make for each person, the choice may not even matter that much when you can change reality to fit your needs. No matter what she does, she has the influence in this game to change the reality of a good move or a bad move to fit her game.

Let’s look at two of Cirie’s moves this season so far.

Was Reilly a better ally to her than Cameron? Yes. Was keeping Cameron the wrong move? If it’s just who is better for her game, then sure, in a vacuum it was the wrong person. The reality is she could have flipped the vote but it would have alienated a bunch of people too early.

Was keeping Hisam better for her than Cameron? I would strongly argue yes. Will it affect her long-term? No. Her adaptability is such a strength in this game that she can make sub-optimal decisions and then put the pieces back together in whatever orientation she wants. Hisam could have won the Pressure Cooker and done Cirie’s bidding. It didn’t go that way, though.

Cameron was the target going into this week. He was the supposed worst-case scenario to win HOH, and with the snap of her all-knowing fingers, Cirie could have eliminated him. And yet, as of this writing, Cirie enlisted Cameron and Red as loyal soldiers to take out her other targets and she rewrote the reality of the house.

We are watching a masterclass in reality TV. Cirie’s work with Matt over the last two weeks has turned him into a) a better player than he was before and b) a reliable ally. Matt spilled the beans to her about Cory and America’s machinations a couple days ago. Cory, who last week was arguably the second most skilled player in the house, has been totally upended by Cirie’s ability to pull in Matt, and put him into play.

Cirie recognizes Cory and America’s savvy and self-interest so she has simply shuffled the deck again to grab people like Cameron - who was just a couple weeks ago complaining that Cirie already got her shot. Allies who are less likely to defect are better allies. Her adaptability allows her to create fake alliances and make them real in an instant. She is Geppetto and everyone else her Pinocchios, becoming real - or being destroyed - whenever she likes.

It doesn’t matter who goes home. The variables are taken care of and Cirie has such control over the house that in many, many scenarios, she, and her power structures, are completely fine. And if not, she’ll just distort reality again.

Yes, she has one of the single biggest advantages in reality TV history. For those saying Jared is a liability - sure, he isn’t doing everything perfectly or even close and he is continually making it harder for her - but let me pull my card here. I was on one of these shows. And if you have someone, even if they’re a mess, that you can trust 100%, you have a huge advantage. You’re cut off from the outside world and no matter how much you know about someone, they could be lying about their home life, their age, occupation, background, or ANYTHING they want. I would take someone who I know in real life, that is 100% who they say they are, even if they’re being sloppy, over an ally I can trust 90% who is rock solid. Cirie having her son in there is the biggest advantage you can have. Despite all his missteps, Jared continues to give his mom key information, like Felicia revealing her hesitance in the Felicia/Cirie F2, because IT’S HIS MOM! COME ON!

And still, if she wins this season, it will be due to her ability to constantly dismantle and reassemble the fabric of Big Brother reality around her. And that advantage aside, this game is really tough and she might end the conversation for greatest competitive reality contestant of all time. Big Brother has never been fair. So whether you’re Cirie, Jared, or a houseguest with no advantages, you play from your starting position and you do everything you can to win your game. Cirie shouldn’t be blamed for playing hers.

Like I said when Cirie was announced, this is her house. Everyone else is just living in it:

🛑 Destroying a Reality Distortion Field(s)

Ok, so Cirie has a Reality TV Distortion Field. How do you stop it? How do you find that sweet spot where you’re Jeff Daniels as John Sculley and you’re the CEO who ousts Steve (briefly, while he builds NeXT)? I’ll tell you what you don’t do: get caught playing the middle. If you’re telling people different things, even subtly, it’ll get back to her.

If you’re one of the few people in the house who aren’t misted, you have to find a way to destroy her in a manner that doesn’t affect you.

Here are six ideas:

1) Enlist an HOH to do your dirty work for you. This is not simple. You have to find someone to nominate Cirie instead of you and then you have to get the house to vote her out. This requires massive influence, which in Big Brother, should be subtle. The less people know you’re influencing them the better. You’re looking at many, many weeks, of toeing the line between creating suspicion on her and being found out, because she has so many tendrils in so many different conversations. Say the wrong thing and you’re getting backdoored.

2) Cut her yourself. This has to be done in the endgame. You pull a Steve Moses and win the final HOH and cut her like he did to Vanessa. You have to form a strong enough bond with Cirie to get her to want you in the endgame. You have to keep any hesitation about going to the end with her to yourself. And then, when you have the sole vote to evict at F3 or F4 or you have a reliable ally voting with you at F5, you take her out. This is ruthless and there are many variables so you have to be ready at each of the final stages. Ideally it happens at 3 so that you impress the jury, but you have to shoot your shot when the moment comes. If it comes earlier, take your shot at F4 or F5. When you kill the queen you get her powers, and her jury recognition.

3) Rat her out. The only person who could really do this right now is Izzy. You get in so close with this all powerful force, find yourself in 12 alliances with her, and then, when the time is right, you let all the info loose to destroy her. An HOH is about to make a replace nomination/you’re about to go on the block/something is happening where it’s do or die, and you go all in. You reveal everything, from top to bottom, to the HOH, then to the entire house, and you dismantle her game from the inside.

4) Take the shot in a double eviction. You get the HOH or your close ally does it. Doubles are intense and if people get the sense they can survive by simply acquiescing to one or two people pushing really hard to evict Cirie, you might get your way. The house develops a different culture when you’re on a tighter schedule and taking advantage of that is the quickest way to get out the GOAT.

5) Find a collaborator. There aren’t too many secret alliances in this house. You can figure out who is working with who by who they’re hanging out with. No matter how smart you are, finding an actual SECRET alliance gives you an advantage. If you can share information covertly, and have no one have any inkling you’re sharing it, it gives you more space to work and opens up options too.

6) Peridiam’s “Multiple Levels of Thought” Theory is one of my favourite strategic approaches. In short, sometimes Cirie overestimates the level that everyone else is playing at. If you see that she has you clocked at a certain level of strategy, playing above or below it can put you at a potential advantage that can help you execute on strategies 1-5. You do this by knowing things about the game or yourself or Cirie that she doesn’t know you know. If this sounds like I’ve gone too deep strategically myself now, that’s because I did and I’ll stop now.

If I had to bet, if we see Cirie evicted at all, I’d say we’re most likely to get options two or four, with someone cutting her near the end or during a double.

Of course, that would require the players to be both self-interested and make it far enough to get into a position to make one of these moves.

Let’s see how it plays out. And win or lose, Cirie is still one of the greatest competitive reality TV contestants of all time and getting to see her on feeds is INCREDIBLE.

Enjoy the inevitable flip-flopping in the next two days,

Kevin 🐍

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