Never Underestimate Anyone

This Week in Bold Strategy #9

Welcome back to This Week in BS, where I break down highlights of Bold Strategy from Survivor, Big Brother Canada, and whatever the hell I want.

As always, scroll to the shows you watch and skip the ones you don’t. Or read everything and see how consuming endless hours of competitive reality TV programming a week affects your personal relationships, your career, and the rest of your life.

Big Brother Canada 11

🤾‍♀️ Fear The Girlie Pops

Note to future houseguests: if you name your alliance a ridiculous name, don’t be surprised if people don’t take you seriously until your group is intact going into the final stretch. Now that Claudia, Renee, and Shanaya are all but guaranteed to be in the top six it’s time to start giving the Girlie Pops credit. It’s not that they were actually dictating the game the whole time - they weren’t. It’s that the three of them have done such a good job of managing their threat levels that they’re all still here and now they’re a force that demands respect.

They’ve won a veto, an HOH, and another HOH, all in three weeks. Shanaya correctly used her veto on Renee. Claudia had a decent HOH despite her target Ty taking himself off the block. And now Renee, no matter what, likely locked these three into the second part of the endgame double eviction by winning this week’s HOH.

What should she do? Well taking out either comp-competent Ty or Kuzie makes sense for the Girlie Pops as a whole, although there is some more nuance to the move for Renee.

She is the third wheel behind Claudia and Shanaya. Those two have shown throughout the game that they are locked in and value each other over Renee, who doesn’t really have anyone outside of the Girlie Pops.

The Shadiest Bunch has fractured to the point where Daniel and Anika know they need to cut Kuzie. Ty is a lone wolf (who may or may not be tight with Kuzie depending on the day). I doubt it happens but Renee should recruit whichever of Ty or Kuzie doesn’t leave this week. Ty talked about wanting to work with her and it makes sense. He can win more physical comps than her. He would target Claudia and Shanaya first and he’s actually a decent person for Renee to sit beside at the end. While this HOH might have helped with her perception in the house, she’s still seen as #3 in the GPs.

If Kuzie stays, Renee should align with her. Reason being: Kuzie will be the top target for everyone else in the house. Statistically Kuz would have to win out, which is highly unlikely. So if Renee can make the third wheel connection with Kuzie, Kuzie may go to jury with a bit more of a story to tell about Renee. And we know the jury loves Kuzie. Nevermind that for the next couple of rounds, if people know that Kuzie and Renee are good, Kuzie actually becomes a shield.

Executing on this is tough because to guarantee that one of Ty or Kuzie goes home, Renee would have to nominate them both. Making them your initial nominations is the only way to make sure that your top two targets are on the block eviction night. If I were Renee, I would go all in on one of these options, specifically Ty - he’s better at comps and less of a jury threat - and put up Kuzie beside Daniel or Anika. As long as Ty doesn’t use the veto, at least one of the Shadiest Bunch would go home.*

Endgame decisions are difficult and no matter what she does, assuming she keeps Claudia and Shanaya safe, those two are in decent positions. Claudia seems to be seen as the leader, which means she’s less likely to get to the end and more likely to win a jury vote. Shanaya is in an interesting spot where if she can make her case (clutch comp win to save Renee, hasn’t hit the block until who knows when), she might have a chance to take this game if she’s sitting beside the right person.

It’s fun to talk about an alliance doing well that most people overlooked just two weeks ago. Let that be a lesson: never underestimate anyone in this game. The Crown didn’t see an alliance of three as a threat and now that alliance of three is in the driver’s seat going into the final weeks.

*by the time you read this there may be Digital Dailies spoiling Renee’s noms

Survivor 44

🏈 The Tribe War

So we get this breakdown of the current state of the game: 4 Ratu, 3 Tika, and 3 Soka members battling it out in the first real post-merge tribal. And then the vote actually plays out with a Ratu-Soka war. Grow up. Seriously. This is an individual game and tribe lines might exist at this point but it’s a disadvantage to be so visibly in those groups. When other people know where you stand it diminishes the strength of your game because it can easily be weakened by attacking your power structure.

The reason why Tika split their votes and played the way they did was that: they wanted to hide their allegiances. What happened to keeping alliances secret? Your game is way more powerful if other people don’t know where you stand, or better yet, think you stand with them when you don’t.

Carson has done a lovely job of this. Everyone thinks he’s this kid who needs help, when in reality, he recognizes that it’s a lot harder to get played when people think they know what game you’re playing. It’s the old levels of thought strategy (credit to Peridiam): you want people to think you think something and then you want to think a level further, where they think they know what you’re doing but in reality you are more strategically advanced - if that sentence sounded convoluted and you’re interested, watch that video I linked.

The reason why the Three Stooges, Carson, Carolyn, and Yam Yam, are in such a good position is because no one really knows what they’re doing but them. That’s dangerous. It should be obvious to the Ratus and the Sokas although they’re too busy swinging their big idols around to notice that it’s usually not the threat in front of you that’s going to blindside you: it’s the one in your blindside. As I talked about in the BBCAN section, underestimating players in this game is stupid and the Three Stooges’ game right now - well it’s nothing to laugh at.

🚽 Farts

But this is.

It’s the first individual immunity challenge with a regular vote. Danny and Lauren have fought through a net, a rope, and a bridge to get to the end. Head to head they face off, one Soka and one Ratu, with the winner earning their spot in the top 9. And then Danny calls out for Jeff. “Danny,” Jeff responds. There’s a dramatic pause.

And then Danny rips ass.

This is so dumb. So stupid. So asinine. And so funny. It doesn’t have to be so serious all the time. It’s a game for a million dollars but it’s a game about people. And people fart.

🕊 Tweet of the Week

Yes this is a tweet about a YouTube video. And she might be right. I’ve linked the video below, where Zach explores the Survivor season that would have been if not for COVID.

Until next time,

Kevin 🐍

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