There are No Goats at F10

Q said a lot this episode. One thing I’ll pick on was calling Venus a goat. Even though the edit has told us that she likely is a goat, someone who can’t win a final tribal council, and she very well may be a losing finalist, I take issue with this characterization at this stage of the game, both from Q and from the edit.

When there are 10 people left in the game, which there were at the beginning of this episode, every single player has a chance to win. Underestimating anyone or calling them a so-called goat, is bad gameplay. There are a few reasons why calling someone a goat at this stage makes no sense.

First of all, if you think you know someone’s entire game, you’re probably wrong. And if you think you can tell the future and predict how they’re going to play for the rest of the game, you’re also probably wrong. Players change and grow and especially with first time castaways, they develop a sense for the game as they move through it. There is a reason why none of the Yanu three have left yet. They had the most tribal council experience prior to the merge, so they’re used to the game in a way the other tribes aren’t.

Second, thinking you can predict a jury’s perception when there is only one member of the jury so far, is also silly. Every juror could have different criteria. They could vote based on gameplay, based on bitterness, or based on who they like the most. Just because Q might see certain players as power players, it doesn’t mean he is right. And some of the best players in modern Survivor find a way to slowly ascend in their threat level, peaking right at final tribal council. If you’re not seen as a big threat in this early jury phase, well that’s probably a good, or threatening thing. It means you’ve got a couple rounds left before you get targeted, which can make you a target. Everyone is a threat at this stage, whether you can see it yet or not.

Third, thinking someone is something – a threat, a goat, a competitor, a flop – in this game has built in bias. What I mean by that is by its nature, Survivor casts people who will feel strongly about each other. In the case of Survivor 46, it’s a lot of people who don’t like each other. Recognizing that your perception of others might not be the consensus perception is important too. Just because you see someone one way doesn’t mean everyone else will see them that way.

Finally, there is nothing to be a goat for at this point. Oh, you haven’t made any moves so far? There are six voting rounds left. SIX. Plus firemaking! That’s a lot of gameplay. People don’t see you as a standout? The numbers will continue to diminish, meaning there is less space to hide and more to make a name for yourself.

Now strategically, I do actually like Q’s approach to keep around the people that he believes are bigger threats. After last tribal, he’s going to need the biggest, baddest threats to stay in the game to shield his now ridiculously large target.

If he doesn’t, well, we might just see that the so-called lesser threats could find themselves rising up above the ashes of the perceived “real” threats. In fact, these lesser threats are the biggest threats to Q’s game. If Tiff can see that Venus is worth keeping around, she might eventually see that Venus is less threatening to her game than Q is. And that would make Venus a threat on her own. Maybe we’ll see that underestimating the so-called weaker players is what leads to Q’s downfall.

Player of the Episode: Liz

• The New Era is all about picking your spots. Liz picked hers, took out Tevin despite some weird events at tribal council, and due to the chaos, might not have increased her threat level at all.

• She is obviously thinking hard about things. It was good to get more Liz this episode and I’m interested in her game.

• Fun to hear her say that her ego wasn’t ok with Tevin and Venus taking credit for the Soda vote.

Look Out For: Kenzie. She is positioned SO WELL. She has Q and Tiff. Q has made himself – and Tiff – into targets. She has good relationships across the board, which ultimately will prove important in a game where people keep trying to turn on each other.

In Danger: Hunter. He lost his biggest ally in Tevin. Good thing he has an idol and he can hang by a pole with just his legs.

Until Next Time,

Kevin 🐍

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