Staying One Step Ahead

Survivor is a zero-sum game. Zero-sum games mean that someone’s advantage is mathematically someone’s disadvantage. When a player gets voted out, the other players are more likely to win. When you make a good move for yourself, it’s bad for others because only one person comes out on top. For that reason, Liz, Maria, Charlie, and Ben, made a heck of move taking out Tiff.

When there is a consensus move - in this case voting out Q - it is almost certainly not the optimal move for everyone. Just mathematically, it doesn’t make sense for voting out Q to the be the right move, because any move will get some people closer to the end and some further away. In fact, by agreeing to a consensus move, you’re probably not doing the right thing for your game and here’s why.

When everyone is aligned on a vote-out, you can gain a positional advantage by voting someone else out. The five players who voted for Tiff knew more about what was going on in this round than Kenzie, Venus, and of course, Tiff. If you know more than the other players, if you have more information than them, you’re inherently in a better spot to make decisions. You can create that knowledge gap by moving against the consensus move.

This puts Kenzie and Venus in a tough position going into next round. No doubt this means we’ll get a segment to start next episode from at least one of them talking about how they have work to do to survive the next vote.

For everyone who did vote Tiff, well they’re in a great spot. Let’s zone in on Charlie and Maria, the power players. They’re the only players who have voted correctly at every tribal council so far. If you’re in the game and you can identify who has voted correctly, it’s a pretty good indication they’re in charge.

By taking the initiative and voting out Tiff here, Charlie and Maria get rid of a strategic player, an idol, and Kenzie’s #1, plus Maria is able to do what few have done before her: operationalize Q. If everyone wants to get a player out, it’s the perfect time to go against the groupthink and grab that player as a number. Sure, Maria might be a bigger target now, yet she has mega-target Q in front of her.

The danger here is that this mid-jury stage ends up becoming a so-called “big target” elimination-fest. Tevin, Hunter, and Tiff were all players who were out in front. Underestimating a Venus or a Liz at this point, or even allowing Q’s target to become so big that you let him slide to the end, could be a problem. For Maria, she’ll have to do what a lot of these players struggle with: give someone else the credit to diminish her threat level.

If I’m Charlie or Maria, I’m looking to cut likeable Ben sometime soon, while figuring out which of the more unique players (Venus, Liz, Q) I want to take along for the ride, and which I want to get rid of. After all, those two Sigas hold all the power, especially after this last move.

Just look at all their correct votes.

Player of the Episode: Liz

• Gotta give it to her making a strategic move when she could have voted out her enemy Q.

• Part of the reason season 46 is different is because of the raw emotion. This game can be very personal. Stop pretending it can’t. Liz didn’t. She let the emotions out and then made the strategic move. Sick!

Look Out For: Kenzie. I think we’re about to see her kick it into overdrive. The post-merge has been filled with big targets and she is really good at threat management. Now that she’s a lone wolf, expect a big comeback. And if she’s sitting in the final three, the Yanu three to final three story will be compelling.

In Danger: Everyone. If I’m Charlie and Maria, this is not an easy round. I’d be looking to solidify numbers to really dominate the endgame. If you add fellow Siga Ben and one more vote, you’re pretty well set up to take out everyone else, one by one, depending on your preference. I’d be looking at Kenzie but I think they’ll shoot at a Q or Venus this round, two players whose strong convictions could cause Charlie and Maria’s control to weaken.

Until Next Time,

Kevin 🐍

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