Weirdos Before Bros

This Week in Bold Strategy #3

Welcome back to This Week in BS, where we break down highlights of Bold Strategy from Survivor, Survivor Australia, Big Brother Canada, and whatever the hell I want.

As always, scroll to the shows you watch and skip the ones you don’t. Or read everything and see how consuming seven hours of competitive reality TV programming a week affects your personal relationships, your career, and the rest of your life.

This week I talk about Carson’s bad read on Helen and working with Carolyn/Yam Yam, why I agree with Simon over George in one specific scenario, and whether a bros alliance in BBCAN is a good thing or not.

Survivor 44

🤝 Hostage Negotiation Skills

Carson thinking Helen had an idol because she crossed her arms was just a horrible read and nothing to do with the way modern hostage negotiation works. This was obvious in the edit dunking on him.

For context, the book Carson probably read was Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss. Voss was the FBI’s lead negotiator turned business negotiation consultant. He broke the traditional negotiation approach of meeting in the middle, or splitting the difference (popularized in Getting to Yes, a 1981 book by Harvard’s Roger Fisher and William Ury), by arguing that the methods that they use in hostage negotiations can be applied to business. The truth is that we’re not logical animals. We’re instinctive, primal, sexual beings and emotions play a far larger role in decision making than cold, hard logic. Voss’ success in the FBI was due to his ability to tap into people’s emotional brains and move them that way, not by proposing to split the difference, a technique that simply doesn’t work when lives are on the line. Getting half a hostage back means losing everything. He took these principles and revolutionized the way people negotiate.

This is not diabolical, as it might seem, it’s actually kind of beautiful. It relies on very careful listening, asking the right questions, and getting people talking. It’s less hard and fast rules like “Crossed arms = guilty” and more a series of methods for getting what you want out of a negotiation by leading with empathy. Some people think I lied a lot in the BBCAN house. I certainly did a few times; however, one of the main methods of communication I used was Voss’ idea of leading with empathy. It means truly understanding what the person on the other side needs. If you learn how to use the skills properly, they actually makes you a better communicator in most scenarios, including your real life. I think Carson is trying to do the same and I commend him for the prep, like last time. That said, this idea of him reading Helen like a book based on studying hostage negotiation is nonsense to me. This was an incorrect take, even though crossed arms do usually mean the person is closed off or nervous or uncomfortable. And in case you didn’t get the memo I highly recommend you read that book.

😇 The Angel and The Devil

I’ll give some more colour to Carson’s choice to go with Yam Yam and Carolyn over Sarah and Helen. If you missed it in exit interviews: the whole tribe knew Sarah lost her vote. That makes the decision to go with the devil (Yam Yam and Carolyn) over the angel (Helen and Sarah) easier, although let’s focus on the truth here: it’s more fun. Fun is a very underrated factor and I’ll explain.

Through two episodes, Carolyn has been so kooky that keeping her around is just enjoyable. She’s on a whole different level as the kind of person that you’d only ever meet on reality TV on an island in Fiji. She’s so unique that she makes Yam Yam look like a Big Four accountant. He even says she’s like a combo of Goofy and Cher. Carolyn talking about how she found an idol because of her experience combing through her son’s poop to find his tooth is one of the wackiest things I’ve heard in a confessional on any show and I’m here for it. If she said that to me on the island I would never, ever turn on her, and I would protect her with everything. She is TV magic. The Survivor editors have embraced the oddballs in the cast and that’s fun for us viewers too. If this season continues down this weird-ass path, it will be one to remember.

Let’s jump into Carson’s shoes for a minute. He’s been studying for so long to get on the show, he has this once in a lifetime opportunity, and he’s on the island with the steady Sarah and Helen and the unhinged Carolyn and fun Yam Yam. He would have never met Carolyn in his life otherwise. He knows that his chances of winning hover around 1-in-16 at this point in the game. If he’s going to starve and play and enjoy this time he might as well have kooky Carolyn around.

Like I’ll say in the BBCAN section, an alliance of variety is better than a more homogenous one. Him, Carolyn, and Yam Yam, make for a weird triad that could do some damage. I also don’t think Carolyn is actually that unsteady. Helen and Sarah are smart and Carolyn might actually end up being a steady alliance member who is easy to bring along for the ride. She compares herself to Noura from Island of the Idols, who, while eccentric, was also Tommy and Lauren’s puppet and the perfect person to drag to the end. She has a bit of Phillip Sheppard energy as well, who was Boston Rob’s loyal soldier. It’s the new era, though, and if she shows some strategic chops maybe she has a slight-little-maybe-tiny chance of winning. Still, she’s so fun and brings her own perspective and vibe and weirdness that I’m happy Carson went with the devil on his shoulder over the angel.

Survivor Australia: Heroes V Villains

On the note of fun, let’s transition to Australian Survivor, where George was having his own fun, and explained his reasoning to Hayley re: voting out his ally Shonee as, “I want to do it. It’ll be funny". There are certainly worse reasons to vote someone out.

🎰 Always Risk It

In the last episode of the week, George and Simon get into a debate. “The only worse thing than doing nothing is trying to do something and failing spectacularly,” George says. Simon disagrees. While George is unquestionably the better game player, I couldn’t be more on team Simon here.

George basically says that if you’re sitting in the early merge and haven’t done much, you shouldn’t try. This is wrong for a few reasons. First, every person has a limited perception of what’s going on in the game, even King George. Notice him blaming Nina for Shaun leaving last episode? There could be tons of gameplay going on that you don’t know about, no matter how much of a mastermind you are. You might be oblivious to the under-the-radar game happening around you that could win it all.

Second, reading how a jury will vote is a difficult thing to do. We saw this in Survivor 43 where the finalists and the audience were surprised at Gabler’s win. Juries can reward different styles of gameplay, including passive gameplay, and if they do end up rewarding it - well then it’s the right way to play. I’m of the belief that the best gameplay is the gameplay that gets you the win. To say that someone isn’t actively playing is underestimating someone and that’s never a good thing to do. In a cast of 16, let’s say, most people have some sort of winner equity, even if it’s tiny. Carolyn can win Survivor 44 even if she probably has the smallest odds.

The third point is entertainment: I don’t want everyone to be a mastermind, I just want them to try to win. Everyone starts these games from different starting positions. You might be physically strong, you might be a bit awkward, you might have a different background, and these things absolutely play a role. People’s first impressions and implicit biases play a role, and that means that people are playing from different starting positions.

How is this related to entertainment? You need to seize every opportunity to get you, all of your baggage and background and existing perceptions, to the end. This is going to look greatly different for every player on the board and whatever it looks like for you, trying and failing is always going to be more entertaining than doing nothing. This includes a passive try where you deliberately play a more passive game. What’s good for one person is not good for another and you’ve got to try to make moves from your specific starting position.

Finally, you play to win. You get one shot to play - maybe two if you’re on SurvivorAU/if you’re lucky - and no matter your starting point, you have a chance. Leave it all out there and if you end up running out of a burning house then at least you gave it your all. This season of SurvivorAU started with 24 people. 24!!!! You have a 1 in 24 chance of winning without accounting for the different starting positions. That’s slightly above 4%. Flying home from Samoa knowing that you didn’t take a chance sucks. Not taking a chance is worse, especially when just by being there you’re taking a risk, and most of the time, you’re probably not going to win.

*I also recognize anything that anything George says could also just be strategy or showboating and should be taken with a grain of salt. I also see the irony in George making that comment and then getting blindsided by Shaun’s vote out.

Big Brother Canada 11

😎 A Bros Alliance - Does it Make Sense?

It looks like we’ve got some dudes working together. Wahoo! So exciting! Wow! Based on the episode and bit of the digital dailies, it appears that Zach, Ty, Roberto, Jonathan, and Hope have all teamed up. Now, while a meat tray is usually not that entertaining, let’s explore if it actually makes sense strategically for each player. There will be some slight Digital Dailies spoilers here.

Zach appears to be out in front. He’s making the decisions and telling people how to act - there was a digital daily clip where he was a little condescending to JM - and this appears to be because he feels like he’s in a powerful position. Being #1 on the call sheet in week one of Big Brother isn’t a great spot. Maintaining that position the entire season is difficult and if you’re visibly the leader, which appears to be the case for Zach, you’re probably going to lose the game.

Ty seems to be balancing creating a good power structure with doing too much. He is in with the guys and has brought in Big Daddy K. He also called out the potential HOH pairing of Santina and JM and may or may not have a showmance with Claudia where he is seemingly the bigger target than her. So take the good with the bad. I think he has enough tentacles in enough places where he’s ok in a lot of different scenarios. Aside: Claudia seemed to be one of the few in the house who recognized what’s going on with the boys and sadly it appears she may have fallen in line with them.

I actually like the alliance for Roberto. He won’t be the first one to go if someone tries to take it down (that’s Zach). He doesn’t seem to scare anyone and he also has a good game sense. If he can avoid showmancing Shanaya, which I’m not sure he can, he might be in a really really good spot. With Jonathan, I haven’t seen enough to give any context here. He was teamed up with Claudia in the HOH comp, so there might be an East Coast connection. More than anything, he clearly trusts Roberto based on the scene where Jonathan talks about his son.

Hope is in an awful position. The boys have basically said that he’s expendable to them. Someone is going to be on the bottom in any group. If he’s solid with the five it’s ok for him although going to the top five (a LONG way away) with said group is always stupid if you’re on the bottom. I hope Hope can see this and break away soon enough.

If this is all sounding, kind of, ok for everyone, well that’s what it is. The alliance is fine and can go in a bunch of different directions. Different people play BBCAN for different reasons. One of my reasons to be there was to work with/align with people that I wouldn’t otherwise meet in my day-to-day. Zach actually makes a comment about this to Claudia, trying to explain why he’s not working with the guys while he is, actually, working with the guys. He says he could hang out with his buddies at home… well we gravitate to the people we’re comfortable with and those who can get out of their comfort zone tend to do well.

A diverse alliance helps you cover your gaps. You could find people who are good at different comps, who are intelligent in different ways, and who have different social skills. It’s not like these five guys are the exact same person, it’s just that more variety is helpful in a game of wildly different people.

Here’s one example: sometimes you want someone else to deliver a message. In one of the online clips we got, Zach actually asked Daniel (Clarke) to make a point to Santina. You would never ever be put in a house in your real life with this group of people and there is a benefit to working with people you wouldn’t otherwise get along with. Zach could benefit from working with Daniel, who seems a little under the radar right now, yet probably knows the game better than anyone else in there.

All-boys alliances are tremendously boring and not that advantageous to most players. Roberto is the only person in the group who is for sure benefitting from the current structure long-term. Effective or not, it’s won’t be fun to watch if it lasts all season.

That’s why my next point is a silver lining: it’s also quite hard to keep any group together. People talk about the Pretty Boys 2.0 way too much; the Pretty Boys had two of the most dominant comp beasts in history in Dane and Adam and one of the most charismatic and persuasive players ever in Anthony (+Dane) and Mark was quite smart too, so don’t think this thing is easy to pull off. Adam and Dane each had SEVEN comp wins and also the HOH didn’t participate in the Veto comp in most of their season so it’s even more impressive. You can call the PBs boring all you like. You can’t say that what they did is easily replicable. And here’s another point: the alliance was mutually beneficial to them, getting all four to the top five positions (where Kyra, person five, won HOH).

I’m not sure that whatever is going on with the BBCAN11 guys will be mutually beneficial to them the whole way. My prediction is that this power structure will crumble around early-mid season and I certainly hope it does for my own entertainment.

🕊 Tweet of the Week

A tweet and a reply this time.

If you’re wondering why I’m so engaged with this season: well of course I am. I’m the reigning champ, I’m covering it here and for RHAP, and frankly, if you’re going to complain about a lack of feeds all season, it’s super boring and doesn’t make for good content. Not watching BBCAN on BBTwitter has become like when someone is following a diet and they expect you to do the same. I respect that you’ve decided to go keto, I don’t need to hear about it every 10 minutes and I don’t need to go keto myself. I love this show and I’ll continue to support it. I would love to see it renewed for season 12 and at that point, I think there is opportunity to influence how they approach next year.

What’s to come: Survivor Australia is fantastic right now so I’m excited for this weeks episodes, for Survivor 44 to stay weird, and for BBCAN11 to pick up some steam as we get to know the cast better. I’ll be on RHAP after the Wednesday night BBCAN episode this week instead of Thursday, where someone who may or may not think I’m a terrible person has graciously agreed take my spot that night.

Until next time,

Kevin 🐍

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